Treasury Wine Estates Ready to Reintroduce Australian Bottles to China

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9 months ago

Treasury Wine Estates Ready to Reintroduce Australian Bottles to China

Shares of Treasury Wine Estates surged to a three-month high on Thursday following the announcement that the company is prepared to resume shipping Australian wine to China. This news comes as a significant development for one of the world’s largest wine producers, whose operations were heavily impacted by Beijing’s imposition of tariffs on Australian wine in 2020, effectively halting shipments to China.

Before the tariffs disrupted the market, China contributed one-third of Treasury’s profits, underlining the country’s importance as a key market for the company. The recent improvement in relations between Canberra and Beijing has paved the way for optimism within the Australian wine industry, with expectations mounting that the tariffs will soon be lifted.

Treasury Wine Estates CEO, Tim Ford, expressed confidence during a conference call with analysts, stating, “We expect a decision and therefore a path forward by the end of March.” Ford emphasized the company’s readiness to reestablish its Australian wine portfolio in China, highlighting the significant growth potential, particularly for its higher-priced Penfolds division.

Based in Melbourne, Treasury Wine Estates boasts a diverse portfolio of brands, including Wolf Blass, Lindeman’s, Beringer, and DAOU. Despite the challenges posed by the tariffs, the company has maintained its presence in China by continuing to ship wine produced outside Australia and employing over 120 staff members in the region.

While Treasury primarily produces wine in Australia, it also operates in the United States, New Zealand, France, and Italy. Should Beijing lift the tariffs, Ford indicated that Treasury would strategically reallocate some of its premium Penfolds wines from other global markets to China while implementing global price adjustments for its luxury Penfolds bottles.

The company’s earnings before interest and taxes (EBITS) for the first half of the fiscal year ending December 31 totaled A$289.8 million ($188.25 million), aligning with Visible Alpha’s consensus estimate. Despite a 13% decline in profit attributed to weak U.S. sales, Treasury surpassed analyst expectations, exceeding Jefferies’s estimate of A$123 million.

Citi analysts noted, “Some feared (the results) could have been worse than what was reported at a headline EBITS level,” highlighting the resilience demonstrated by Treasury Wine Estates amid challenging market conditions. The company remains optimistic about stronger performance in the second half of the fiscal year and reaffirmed its forecast for mid- to high-single-digit organic EBITS growth in 2024.

In line with market expectations, Treasury declared an interim dividend of 17 Australian cents per share, slightly below the 18 Australian cents paid out the previous year. Despite this, Treasury’s shares experienced a nearly 3% increase at 0330 GMT, reaching their highest levels since November 8 earlier in the trading session.

The potential resurgence of Australian wine exports to China signifies a promising opportunity for Treasury Wine Estates to capitalize on its renowned brands and regain its foothold in one of the world’s largest wine markets. As the company navigates evolving trade dynamics and market conditions, investors and industry observers alike remain eager to witness the outcome of this pivotal moment in Treasury’s strategic trajectory. ($1 = 1.5394 Australian dollars)

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